China announced sweeping new rare earth export restrictions today, tightening control over the minerals that power everything from jet engines to smartphones, according to Reuters yesterday. With 70% of global mining and 90% of processing under Beijing’s control, this looks like economic warfare.

But here’s what most analysts are missing: this isn’t an attack – it’s preparation.

The pre-game leverage play

Game theory teaches us that the best negotiations happen before you sit at the table. By restricting rare earths now, China isn’t trying to damage the U.S. economy – they’re creating a bargaining chip they can offer to give back.

This is a constructive escalation: create a problem you can solve. When Trump and Xi meet in South Korea at the end of October, China can offer to ease these restrictions in exchange for U.S. concessions elsewhere. The restriction becomes the solution.

Why this actually helps America

Counterintuitively, China’s move forces both sides toward the negotiating table with clear stakes. America now has a concrete problem to solve, China has a concrete concession to offer. No more abstract trade disputes. Just simple resource economics.

Both leaders get to look strong: Trump by “forcing” China to restore access, Xi by “protecting” Chinese interests while making a deal.

The timing isn’t coincidence. It’s strategy. In negotiations, the side that creates the agenda often controls the outcome.