Same game, new moves

In my last piece, I argued that Beijing’s export controls were never simple retaliation. They were the opening act of a negotiation. By creating a problem it could later solve, China built leverage.

Now Trump has made his countermove. His 100% tariff on Chinese goods looks like retaliation, but it’s part of the same choreography — the preplay before the final act, likely when Trump and Xi meet in South Korea later this month.

This is the phase where pressure builds and narratives are shaped long before visible negotiations between leaders begin. And tariffs are only one layer. In the last few days, both sides used quieter, equally strategic tools: export controls on software, limits on AI and cloud access, and even reciprocal port fees. Each a lever to raise pressure while keeping room for negotiation.

Power through pressure

In game theory, escalation can be cooperation in disguise. The goal isn’t chaos, it’s control. China’s export restrictions manufactured scarcity; the U.S. mirrored that logic in tech. New rules from Washington tighten the flow of chip-design software and AI-related cloud services to Chinese firms.

At sea, the pattern repeats. After the U.S. imposed port fees on Chinese vessels, Beijing matched them with levies on U.S.-linked ships. Symbolic in size but strategic in intent, these moves reinforce the story of strength without derailing the game itself.

The silence that speaks

The clearest proof that this is design, not disorder, lies in what hasn’t happened. Trump keeps saying he’s ready to meet Xi in South Korea. Beijing stays quiet. No cancellations, no ultimatums. That silence is the move. It keeps the story open and the tension useful.

Both sides can posture without breaking. They can fight without losing the path to reconciliation. Conflict, carefully contained, becomes a diplomatic asset.

Negotiating the narrative

Every headline now follows the same rhythm: one side acts, the other reacts harder, yet both preserve optionality. The export controls, the cloud limits, the port fees. They are all part of the same pre-negotiation logic. Each move raises the visible stakes while maintaining a hidden path back.

The deal before the deal

What looks like confrontation is actually coordination. Each side is using controlled escalation to make a future agreement inevitable. They’re writing the story now so that the ending feels like victory for both.

When Trump and Xi finally meet – and they will – it won’t be the start of a negotiation. It will be the closing scene of one that’s already been played.